Markets for the Week : 29th August - 2nd September
WELCOME TO THE WEEKLY BLOG ON INDIAN EQUITIES MARKETS
IMPORTANT CLOSE FOR THE WEEK GONE BY (Domestic Markets):
|
Nifty50 |
17558.90 |
-1.12% |
|
Sensex |
58833.87 |
-1.36% |
|
Nifty Bank |
38987.15 |
+0.00% |
|
India VIX |
18.21 |
-0.38% |
|
USD INR |
79.96 |
+0.07% |
|
Crude Oil |
93.06 |
+2.90% |
|
Gold |
51238 |
-0.47% |
|
Silver |
54780 |
-1.29% |
IMPORTANT CLOSE FOR THE WEEK GONE BY (International Markets):
|
Dow Jones |
32263 |
-4.28% |
|
Nasdaq |
12620 |
-4.88% |
FII / DII Data for the WEEK, Net Purchase / Sales in Rs. Crores
|
Foreign
Institutional Investors (FII) |
+450.36 |
|
Domestic
Institutional Investors (DII) |
- 503.33 |
As mentioned in the previous weekly blog, The INDEXES
were expected to remain NEGATIVE or SIDEWAYS.
Precisely, the NIFTY50 has closed negative for the
week by approx. -200 points.
Also, the BANKNIFTY has closed at a flat 0.00%. change
for the week, in sync with the view of being sideways.
Also on the 18th of August 2022, had cautioned that NIFTY was overstretched. Nifty was at 17968 which has now corrected by almost -500 points.
IMPORTANT EVENT Dated 26.08.2022 : THE JACKSON HOLE (Summary):
What was the Jackson Hole Event?
The meeting was conducted by the US Federal Reserve
and it hosted economists, central bankers and policymakers from across the
world.
It is an important event for Investors to understand Fed’s stance on rate hikes.
What happened at the Event?
Fed said that it is "data dependent" for
September meeting, to understand the Inflation.
July inflation data was not enough to change Fed
views with regards to rate-hikes.
Will require more restrictive policy "for some
time" to curb inflation.
However, the Fed also said that it can slow pace of rate hikes "at some point".
How did the Markets React?
With anticipated rate hikes and Inflation still not
under control as per the FED’s speech, the event turned out to be detrimental
for Global Markets.
The Dow Jones closed by –1010 points and NASDAQ closed by -535.50 points.
How would be the impact on Markets in the near
future?
NEGATIVE
The markets have been discounting all the rate hikes in the recent past. Also, the indexes have seen a considerable rally from the recent lows of 15100 to a high of 17900. Thus, in absence of any catalyst for the positive momentum to continue the markets would now face a very strong resistance.
SECTOR SPECIFIC OUTLOOKS:
|
NIFTY AUTO |
The sector remains strong.
Also, the hike in interest rates has not yet
impacted demand for vehicles and companies are witnessing a surge in demand
with delivery waiting periods up to 12 months. However, the Semi-conductor
issues is still affecting production and the auto-makers are not able to see a
100% normalization in the current quarter as well.
Indian EV Market is poised to reach annual sales of 1.70 crore by 2030. (Positive for TATA MOTORS currently).
As per recent reports, the Auto-Component Sector has seen a record turnover of 4.2 lakh crore rupees in FY2022.
Maruti:
The country's largest carmaker Maruti Suzuki India
has said that it will fight to get back to 50 per cent market share in the
domestic passenger vehicle segment. The company has aggressive plans and has the
company has lined up various SUV launches as it seeks to improve its market
share in both compact and mid-sized SUV segments.
Mahindra & Mahindra:
SsangYong Motors (a subsidiary of M&M) has
received an approval from all parties with regards to its restructuring plans
from Seoul court. Since M&M had already made provision for the losses of SsangYong
Motors a good recovery can now be expected. M&M will receive cash under reconstruction
and the stake will be reduced to less than 10% (from earlier approx. 75%) under
the Debt-to-Equity swap.
Tata Motors:
The stocks as mentioned in the previous blog had an
important support at 450 and it reversed from 448 during the week to close at
465.
Eicher Motors:
The company's chief financial officer tendered his
resignation, which will be effective after September 2. The company has
witnessed a series of management exits from the company over the last few
years. Its CEO and Asia-Pacific head have resigned in the past 6 months. (Negative).
Hero MotoCorp:
KKR and Co. is in advanced negotiations to invest
around $400 million in Hero Group’s renewables energy company Hero Future
Energies (HFE), in what would be the US private equity manager's single largest
cheque in the Indian clean energy space so far. The investment will largely be
a primary infusion to reduce debt and grow the business. (Positive)
Overall
Outlook:
The sector remains strong until it holds 12000 on the Auto Index.
|
NIFTY BANK |
Report on Fraud Cases.
Majority of the
banks declared their fraud cases for the Period April-June the data of which is
as under:
Kotak Mahindra Bank :5278
(Negative)
ICICI Bank :436
HDFC Bank :303
IndusInd Bank :200
Axis Bank :195
RBL Bank :150
SBIN :9
(Positive)
Other PSU Banks :Single Digit
Canara Bank :ZERO (Positive)
State Bank of India (SBI), the largest bank in the nation, maintained its leadership position in the debit card market and HDFC Bank in the credit card market as of June 2022.
PSU banks dominate the debit card market.
According to figures issued by the Reserve Bank of India, credit card spending was Rs 1.09 trillion for the month, a decrease of 4.34% month-over-month (RBI). However, spending increased 73% year over year. Spending on credit cards reached a record-breaking Rs 1.14 trillion in May.
Overall
Outlook:
The PSU Bank
looks strong as compared to Private Banks. The PSU Bank Index looks set for a
breakout.
NIFTY FMCG |
Technically FMCG index has a support on the downside 42600 levels for short term and 42000 for a long-term, whereas minor resistance on the upside is around 42800.
The government decided to put restrictions on the export of wheat flour to curb rising prices of the commodity. The war between Russia and Ukraine, the major exporters of wheat, account for around one-fourth of the global wheat trade. This has led to global wheat supply chain disruptions, thus increasing the demand for Indian wheat. Wheat Prices have started to rise again which is detrimental for the FMCG sector (Negative.)
After wheat, rice prices are firming up on reports of supply concerns with the all India average retail price of the grain ruling higher by 6.31 per cent at Rs 37.7 per kg compared to the year-ago period
With Brand Saffola, Marico Eyes Rs 850-1,000 Crore Food Business by 2024. (Positive).
Only Nestle and Tata Consumers looked positively placed in the FMCG pack.
Overall Outlook:
The FMCG index is facing a very strong resistance and looks negative / short term breakdown in the coming week.
NIFTY METALS |
The outlook for the steel sector is not very encouraging, considering the fall in steel prices and shrinking demand for the metal.
Steel prices and margins will remain under pressure in the future. However China (which is the biggest consumer of Steel in the world) is continuously lowering interest rates in order to stimulate its economy, while most other central banks are raising interest rates. This will assist metal prices in remaining neutral.
However by large the underlying demand scenario does not look strong, especially as the globally the manufacturing companies are contracting with 95% of larger economies have seen decrease in manufacturing sector activities in July.
Hindalco: The company earmarks about $8-bn capex over next 5 yrs. 70 per cent of the company's consolidated cash flows will be allocated towards high-growth downstream segments , including EVs, mobility, batteries and Consumer durables. (Positive.)
Adani Enterprise: Highly Overbought on Technical Parameters and is a clear avoid.
NMDC : The Supreme Court of India has raised the cap on iron ore mining in Karnataka to 50 mt from current 35 mt. (Positive.)
Vedanta: Vedanta Ltd is targeting to become a USD 100 billion company in another eight years from the present USD 18 billion.
Overall Outlook:
Stock specific : Hindalco and Vedanta look well placed as compared to other Metal Stocks.
NIFTY INFORMATION TECH. |
With the massive sell-off on the NASDAQ after the Jackson-Hole meeting this sector provisionally looks negative.
Technically the Nifty IT index has formed a Marubozu pattern on the weekly time-frame and that is signaling a further weakness in the IT stocks.
The Index had a very strong resistance of 30,000 and it has effectively reversed from the same levels.
With more fed-rate hikes anticipation and looming recession fears, TECH stocks (which derive their major revenues from Export markets) look to face some downside.
Also the Indian IT firms have cut-down on bonuses on account of tightening of budgets by US and European clients. Infosys has cut the average variable pay-out to 70% on account of depleting profit margins.
Overall Outlook : Avoid for the coming week, expect strong downside.
NIFTY OIL & GAS |
IMPORTANT CLOSE FOR THE WEEK GONE BY:
|
Crude Oil |
93.06 USD/Barrel |
+2.90% |
|
Gross Refining
Margins |
11.323 |
-9.20% |
|
Natural Gas |
9.252 USD/mmbtu |
-1.63% |
GAIL – the largest gas transmission company in India – could see an impact on its earnings due to higher gas prices.
City gas
distribution (CDG) companies also stand to impact as the blended gas cost
increases. Owing to rising gas prices in the Asian market, the blended gas cost
will also increase for CGDs. The same is expected to impact Gujarat Gas the
most, followed by IGL and MGL.
Oil prices jump on OPEC+ supply tightening fears. Higher Crude Oil Prices continue to hamper state-owned refineries viz. BPCL and HPCL.
As per the latest report Oil & Gas Industry Set for Record $1.4 Trillion Cash Flow In 2022. This is highly beneficial for Reliance Industries, the only positive for the entire Oil and Gas Sector.
Overall Outlook : Be stock specific with Reliance. Avoid OMC's until crude hold 94 USD/barrel and above. European winter crisis can be detrimental for CGD's.
OTHER IMPORTANT NEWS |
Also affordable 5G services are expected to roll-out in INDIA by October 2022.
Mittal Family has increased it stake by 3.3% in Airtel. (Positive).
FPI's pumped in 44500 Crore rupees in August till date.
Cement Sector: Historically Power and Fuel prices used to be 20-25% of Sales, however in Q1 FY23 power and fuel costs have surged to 25-35% of the Sales. Profitability continues to remain under pressure due to steep rise in these costs.
NOTES FOR THE COMING WEEK:DISCLAIMER: THE ABOVE VIEWS ARE EXPRESSED ON BASIS OF BROAD MARKET NEWS. THERE ARE NO SPECIFIC RECOMMENDATIONS TO BUY, SELL, ACCUMULATE / REDUCE ANY OF THE STOCKS. KINDLY CONSULT YOUR FINANCIAL ADVISOR BEFORE INVESTING INTO STOCK MARKETS. INVESTMENT INTO EQUITY MARKETS ARE SUBJECT TO RISKS. ANY DECISION TAKEN ON BASIS OF READING THIS BLOG WOULD BE AT AN INDIVIDUALS OWN/PERSONAL DISCRETION. THE WRITER OF THIS BLOG SHALL NOT BE REPOSIBLE FOR THE OUTCOME OF ANY TRADES.
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